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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is there any real possibility of Trump losing this election? electoral-vote.com has been wrong a few times.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Is there any real possibility of Trump losing this election? electoral-vote.com has been wrong a few times.
Only if all the christian sects in the U.S. recognize Trump just has endorsed a voodoo priest from Africa and some weeks ago has made an advertizenment for Satan holding the cross on the bible upside down.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
richk in 2016 wrote:
Each individual poll has very low fractions of citizens. Any poll by itself has huge margin of error (as I have pointed out multiple times on this thread). Looking at an individual poll is pretty close to useless. The aggregate polls, or forecasts are much better. They try to weigh all of the available polls, and often take other factors into account. They are relatively new, so it could turn out that everyone is missing something and there is a big surprise. But I think that is unlikely.
Wow, how do you retrieve your posts so old ....

No,
you don't need any representative poll at all to predict a change in outcomes. You just have to stick to the same "constituency" of your polling over time and measure every change in opinions. Doesn't matter the results but the changes!

I wonder, there are AI models for everything:
- moving patterns of the streets for autonomously driving
- a few bills a woman has paid in the store can predict she is pregnant
- movement patterns in the whole country can predict there is a pandemic
But nobody was challenged by the task to predict elections using AI ?
(I don't believe there is no such AI project, but perhaps not for everyone to see!)
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Naib
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Things are getting interesting:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Donald Trump calls for delay to 2020 US presidential election


is he trolling just to cause the usual suspect to foam at the mouth about constitutional violation or is he serious - he does have a very valid point about postal fraud... every country that does it has a high level
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notageek
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Probably trolling. Probably he's losing. No real way to tell unless you're Trump.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is the economy not a feed of Trump.
Herman Cain dead after 3 weeks fighting the Coronavirus!
His death is sending a devastating message to the customers who could firing up the mood ...
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richk449
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Probably trolling. Probably he's losing. No real way to tell unless you're Trump.

Is he tweeting? Then he's trolling.
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e3k
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Probably trolling. Probably he's losing. No real way to tell unless you're Trump.
yes he is loosing it right now. he is in charge and responsible for any catastrophy that happens right now (simplistic view but many may think so). I guess he tries to win some time. But this won't help unless he could barricade himself like Putin for years or even decades.
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The Doctor
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its probably a ploy to get the states to commit to electoral security and "prove" what steps they are taking to stop fraud. Something that it will end up being very politically inconvenient for them.

Given the surge in membership of #walkaway and other very strong signs the white non-college educated middle class are walking away from the democrats in large numbers. This group is also not covered by conventional polling. This election does not look good for Biden. Expect a major red wave in November at all levels.

Those flaws in the 2016 polls that failed to predict the election have never been fixed. The polls are reporting the same bunk data.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
...
Given the surge in membership of #walkaway and other very strong signs the white non-college educated middle class are walking away from the democrats in large numbers. This group is also not covered by conventional polling. This election does not look good for Biden. Expect a major red wave in November at all levels.

Those flaws in the 2016 polls that failed to predict the election have never been fixed. The polls are reporting the same bunk data.
Yes polls seem to be failing in the U.S.

For years the U.S. was rated the best prepared country to respond to a pandemic. But still all polls suggest 40% of voters support the Trump mass murder?
If that was true the american people cannot read their Twitter feed:
@realDonaldTrump in january: "KEEP AMERICA GREAT"
@realDonaldTrump now : "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN"
While everywhere on this earth governments are punished for failure - but the Trump is not in any way?
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Naib
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No plan survives first contact with the enemy

Being prepared for a pandemic and working through one are two totally different scenarios.
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richk449
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
No plan ...

Exactly
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
Naib wrote:
No plan ...

Exactly
In fact
you can have no plan / an ever changing plan / two plans never changing since 5t years
like in India:
1. keep obecity below 10%
2. on religious holydays drink water from Ganges river which distributes the death toll over time.
If there is no working plan but the anciant indian then the next pandemic changes faces everywhere.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
Bones McCracker wrote:
Former Sanders campaign co-chair Nina Turner compares voting for Biden to eating 'bowl of shit'

Quit lying.

She said that choosing Biden was like Choosing half a bowl of shit. Totally different..

Oh, yeah! That's "Totally Different", because... um... people use bowls for things besides eating, uh, sometimes! :roll:
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The Doctor
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
The Doctor wrote:
...
Given the surge in membership of #walkaway and other very strong signs the white non-college educated middle class are walking away from the democrats in large numbers. This group is also not covered by conventional polling. This election does not look good for Biden. Expect a major red wave in November at all levels.

Those flaws in the 2016 polls that failed to predict the election have never been fixed. The polls are reporting the same bunk data.
Yes polls seem to be failing in the U.S.

For years the U.S. was rated the best prepared country to respond to a pandemic. But still all polls suggest 40% of voters support the Trump mass murder?
If that was true the american people cannot read their Twitter feed:
@realDonaldTrump in january: "KEEP AMERICA GREAT"
@realDonaldTrump now : "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN"
While everywhere on this earth governments are punished for failure - but the Trump is not in any way?
If you want to accuse anyone of murder, maybe you should start with journalists and the WHO for actively suppressing information on Hydroxychloroquine. With France and leading doctors in the US publishing more than 7 studies showing it cures COVID-19 with nearly 100% positive results even in high risk populations it is still being banned and any mention on the science is called "fake news" and deleted. Not a single study has found any negative effects.

So get a grip. Next your going to tell us that Merkel sending the Jews to camps is a good thing because the media is documenting all the subverting things they are doing and any comparison to another leader is fake news. Seriously, you are just the type of person to cheer by those trains.
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richk449
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Doctor wrote:
If you want to accuse anyone of murder, maybe you should start with journalists and the WHO for actively suppressing information on Hydroxychloroquine. With France and leading doctors in the US publishing more than 7 studies showing it cures COVID-19 with nearly 100% positive results even in high risk populations it is still being banned and any mention on the science is called "fake news" and deleted. Not a single study has found any negative effects.

What in the world are you talking about? How is WHO suppressing information on hydroxychloroquine? How are journalists suppressing information? Every day I am flooded with articles on it. Frankly, I feel the exact opposite - there is way way too much discussion of one drug that hasn't shown much promise. There are plenty of trials going on, so if it does prove to be effective, it will quickly be used.

How can you possibly say "not a single study has found any negative effects"?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3760572/
Quote:
Cardiotoxicity is a rare but serious complication of hydroxychloroquine, a 4-aminoquinoline increasingly used in the treatment of rheumatological disorders. We describe typical clinical, echocardiographic, and histological features of this rare condition according to the currently available literature, illustrated with a recent new biopsy-proven case of hydroxychloroquine cardiotoxicity in a 52-year-old female with rheumatoid arthritis. Presentation in this case was of a rapidly progressive decompensated biventricular cardiomyopathy associated with recurrent biomarker elevations, conduction system disease, and possibly neuromyotoxicity. Death occurred suddenly 2 months after diagnosis despite drug discontinuation and clinical improvement.


Where are the 7 studies with "nearly 100% positive results"? (And what does "nearly 100% positive results" even mean?)

A significant number of recent studies have not shown positive results:
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4207
Quote:
Change in symptom severity over 14 days did not differ between the hydroxychloroquine and placebo groups


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
Quote:
The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%])


https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/statement-from-the-chief-investigators-of-the-randomised-evaluation-of-covid-19-therapy-recovery-trial-on-hydroxychloroquine-5-june-2020-no-clinical-benefit-from-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-in-hospitalised-patients-with-covid-19
Quote:
A total of 1542 patients were randomised to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3132 patients randomised to usual care alone. There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes. ‘These data convincingly rule out any meaningful mortality benefit of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised with COVID-19.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2558-4 Monkeys:
Quote:
In macaques, we tested different treatment strategies in comparison to placebo, before and after peak viral load, alone or in combination with azithromycin (AZTH). Neither HCQ nor HCQ+AZTH showed a significant effect on the viral load levels in any of the tested compartments. When the drug was used as a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), HCQ did not confer protection against acquisition of infection.


This one does show a positive result:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext (copy and paste - I can't figure out how to get the link to work)
Quote:
In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality.


Hopefully hydroxychloroquine does turn out be effective, but so far the case is not made.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can remember there was speculation by scientists that
hydroxychloroquine could have some effect in the very beginning of the infection.
The dosis of Coronavirus you got infected with is an important factor how badly CoVid-19 is for you. That means perhaps hydroxychloroquine can reduce the dosis of infection (so to say). But how do you treat with this medicine when waiting a week for the test result.? (The Trump gets the result 6h later after being tested.)
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In that last study, [url]https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext[/url] there seems to be a pretty obvious case of selection bias. The vast majority of al patients (1,985/2,541) in the study received HCQ.

I think the funky URL behavior is because of the parenthesis. Who uses parenthesis in a URL?!
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now comes to light: A conspiracy in The White House wanted to blame states with Democratic governors and canceled the plan to confine the pandemic. The chinese testing kits were hidden from the public.

... if this story is true every GOP is a traitor when voting for the Trump as presidential candidate and the Trump is exposed to the eyes of everyone.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lol conspiracy :roll:

Yeah, we have no shortage of conspiracies, but they're almost all by butt-hurt Democrats suffering rage and frustration after being misled into thinking that were going to win the last election, and being deceived before that with "Hope & Change".

Only problem is, they're trying to solve that problem by doing the same things again: lying to people and deceiving them.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
... if this story is true every GOP is a traitor when voting for the Trump as presidential candidate and the Trump is exposed to the eyes of everyone.

Have you registered in the US as a foreign agent yet?
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@figueroa I have registered in this forum as a german agent outside the U.S.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We know you work for the People's Army.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
We know you work for the People's Army.
In Germany on social media I take the agenda of my name in another direction: enrich the ultra left with some moderate views, because I am an old style "Sozialdemokrat" who knows the security provided by police is for the weak and poor person important more often than for the rich. And I am totally against gendering with rules of the german language.

Here is the long version of the Axios interview with the Trump
At this video time his thinking about the pandemic transparently displays. Since some time everybody wonders why the Trump persists on his statistic where the U.S. is best with the death rate. Turns out over time the number of deaths per infected people came down. This happens when:
1. more younger people get the infection. Or 2. the treatment of the very ill in hospitals change to the better.
... you can seize a positive from any statistics ...
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In an interview with Lou Dobbs the U.S. president makes appearently clear in his first sentence: The Trump cannot grasp what patriotism is. It was so fine tuned and well thought what the theme for the next step in the re-electrion campaign might well suited be ...
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